13 April 2010

Financial System Reform in the U.S.: What Happens Next

Columbia University's Committee on Global Thought yesterday hosted a lecture with two movers-and-shakers, past and present, in the world of financial regulation in the United States: former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt, and current Commodity Futures Trading Commission chief Gary Gensler. The topic: how to reform a regulatory system that fell asleep at the wheel and failed to detect a crisis.

The panel discussion - chaired by Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz - came to two key conclusions: financial markets need more transparency, and the United States needs to take the lead in developing smart regulations if the rest of the world is to sign on.

Gensler's proposal is to bring more futures/derivatives trading into a central clearinghouse, allowing regulators to more easily monitor and assess risk in a market that is fragmented. Centralizing derivatives transactions into a more open, central clearinghouse will cut into the premiums earned by derivatives dealers but will also make the market less risky and more transparent, he contends.

Levitt, a veteran of the Clinton Administration, was decidedly pessimistic on the financial reforms proposed both in the U.S. House and Senate, saying they would do little to prevent moral hazard and a "too big to fail" mentality among major financial institutions. He also said Europe, the United Kingdom and other major financial centers will fail to tighten their regulations until the United States takes the lead. Gensler agreed, but admitted that after 18 years on Wall Street, he knows bankers will, in such a case, take advantage of the inevitable opportunity for regulatory arbitrage - that is, investors will put their money in jurisdictions where capital is less tightly regulated at the expense of American financial markets. These points illustrate that any kind of real policy coordination between the United States and the European Economic Community is an idealistic, rather than realistic, endeavor in such tight political and economic conditions.

What the panel failed to accomplish was finding a way to navigate through the alphabet soup of agencies that are already charged with regulating various segments of the American financial system. Very little was said about the Federal Reserve System, which despite being charged with regulating the banking system from a macroeconomic view, is widely criticized for failing to regulate and for creating the conditions that enabled the crisis through its loose monetary policy. And yet, the Fed remains a key player in any regulatory structure going forward and needs to be a keystone of any reform.

In the end, the discussion itself and the very presence of two speakers representing regulators that, in the grand scheme, have a small purview over the American financial system, revealed how broad a reform is needed. As such, is any discussion that contains only the SEC and CFTC even relevant?

The SEC, staffed with just 3,700 regulators, for example, has very little authority over financial instruments that fall outside the more traditional definition. And, how does an agency such as the SEC both target run-of-the-mill insider trading and securities fraud while also tracking systemic risk in a complex financial system? The failure to bring down Bernard Madoff before it was too late shows how overextended the agency already is.

In the meantime, as Gensler aptly pointed out, the CFTC only regulates futures markets, missing the important and growing piece that is over-the-counter derivatives, among which are the many mortgage-backed securities that were at the heart of the sub-prime crisis. The two in combination have little effect on monitoring a financial system that is increasingly global and increasingly spread over a variety of financial instruments.

2 comments:

teekblog said...

Interesting stuff. Here in the UK we have a similar issue of course - how to regulate financial instruments that may in themselves not be very risky (CDO of ABS or some such acronym) but that pose very great systemic risk. The UK Conservative Party's answer is to basically get rid of all the separate regulatory authorities and put overall responsibility for market stability in the hands of the central bank - not sure whether that would work...

Here's some philosophy as to why. I am reading Nassim Nicolas Taleb's incredible book Black Swan - where he discusses human beings' inability to compute risk on a systemic basis, the inability to see the unexpected coming, the tendency to fool ourselves that the random will not strike. Perhaps financial regulators are unable to control systemic risk because they are blind to the risk - low probability but high-impact-if-occurs - that these instruments pose.

Abstract philosophy aside, perhaps one practical answer is somewhat Keynsian in nature - a Tobin-style tax on those transactions now seen to pose most systemic risk, used to build up a 'bailout fund' - although I see that moral hazard would still remain to some extent.

In the end a powerful regulator, truly independent of financial players, with the ability to shut down uber-risky operations and that places an ultimate 'good-for-society' requirement on participants in financial markets - but then I doubt that interventionist stance would go down too well on Wall St right...?!

NM said...

excellent point - the Tobin tax is something economists on both sides of the ideological divide have endorsed in some capacity. I think it could be one of the more useful ways to target risk and stem harmful capital flows. But as you point out, the idea of doing so was quickly swept under the mat after Gordon Brown and others proposed it a few months ago - primarily because the U.S. Treasury and Wall Street were of course against it. So I agree, what's needed is a strong regulator that, at least from the U.S. perspective, brings together the patchwork of agencies and take a macro regulatory view...and it shouldn't be the central bank, which already has enough on its plate (billions of dollars worth of toxic assets!) This sort of move will shore up confidence in financial markets, the exact attribute that is lacking right now.

Will have to check out the Taleb book, sounds like an important read!!

Thanks as always for reading and commenting ;)